我国利率政策实践及其效果的实证检验

利率是一个重要的经济范畴和经济指标。基于近年来我国央行频繁采用利率政策调控宏观经济等措施,文章采用计量经济学的相关分析方法,从宏微调控层面展开对我国利率政策实施效果的检验,得出结论：一是伴随市场环境的变化,在1996年以后,我国利率政策的有效性方才得以基本显现;二是在我国利率政策的运行过程中,利率政策的时滞效应非常明显,通常时滞在12个月以上。     

政府高储蓄对宏观经济的负面影响——基于“政府储蓄悖论”的解释

作为政府宏观经济管理的中介指标,政府储蓄对于经济稳定增长至关重要。但是,当政府的高储蓄没有真正发挥其作用时,就导致“政府储蓄悖论”现象的发生。负面影响具体表现为,在政府储蓄中的政府用于投资支出部分给经济带来结构调整的风险,在政府储蓄中的政府金融资产部分在经济上使政府资产表现出不确定性风险。     

我国居民储蓄存款余额的现状与变动情况分析

居民储蓄额的高低对一国的经济增长、投资以及居民的生活等方面都有着不同程度的影响。通过分析我国居民储蓄存款余额现状,发现我国居民储蓄存款持续增长,并对出现这种情况的原因加以分析,以便更好地对储蓄存款加以引导,发挥其更大的经济效应。     

对德国储蓄银行的考察与启示

本文通过对德国两家储蓄银行的考察,总结了其有益的经营理念。一是德国储蓄银行非常重视企业CI的建设工作;二是重视机构合作和资源共享;三是重视信息系统的研发工作;四是重视企业文化的积累和提炼;五是重视风险的管理和防范工作;六是重视对公益事业的支持;七是德国储蓄银行与地方经济共成长。     

TFP增长率与中国的高储蓄率——兼论中美储蓄率差异的原因

本文应用新古典增长模型和反事实实验方法对中国高储蓄率的原因进行了研究。我们建立了一个标准的新古典增长模型以模拟中国的储蓄率变动,然后运用反事实实验分别检验了1992～2007年期间人口增长率、资本回报率、折旧率、政府支出在GDP中的份额、TFP增长率对储蓄率的影响,结果发现TFP增长率的变化是解释中国储蓄率变动趋势的最重要因素。如果中国面临与美国一样高的资本初始存量和相同的TFP增长率,则中国在此期间与美国储蓄率的差异将会大大低于中美储蓄率的实际差异。所以,中美之间的储蓄率差异可能并不需要由中国的各种独特性因素来解释。     

Saving less when there is more foreign lending? Foreign debt and savings in developing countries

Although literature has given considerable attention to the effects of foreign debt on growth, we still know little about its effects on the internal potential for capital formation. Literature suggests a number of channels through which the availability of foreign financing could affect domestic savings. We test empirically this relationship using data for Sub‐Saharan Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean over 1975–2004. Controlling for endogeneity, we find that foreign debt adversely influences domestic savings especially in the long run. The results are not susceptible to the choice of countries, although few outliers should be noted.     

Less frequent dosing of erythropoiesis stimulating agents in patients undergoing dialysis: a European multicentre cost study

Abstract

Objective: To calculate the variable costs involved with the process of delivering erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESA) in European dialysis practices.

Methods: A conceptual model was developed to classify the processes and sub-processes followed in the pharmacy (ordering from supplier, receiving/storing/delivering ESA to the dialysis unit), dialysis unit (dose determination, ordering, receipt, registration, storage, administration, registration) and waste disposal unit. Time and material costs were recorded. Labour costs were derived from actual local wages while material costs came from the facilities’ accounting records. Activities associated with ESA administration were listed and each activity evaluated to determine if dosing frequency affected the amount of resources required.

Results: A total of 21 centres in 8 European countries supplied data for 142 patients (mean) per hospital (range 42–648). Patients received various ESA regimens (thrice-weekly, twice-weekly, once-weekly, once every 2 weeks and once-monthly). Administering ESA every 2 weeks, the mean costs per patient per year for each process and the estimates of the percentage reduction in costs obtainable, respectively, were: pharmacy labour (€10.1, 39%); dialysis unit labour (€66.0, 65%); dialysis unit materials (€4.11, 61%) and waste unit materials (€0.43, 49%).

Limitation: Impact on financial costs was not measured.

Conclusion: ESA administration has quantifiable labour and material costs which are affected by dosing frequency.     

Precautionary Saving,Financial Risk,and Portfolio Choice

Relying on a direct question about the desired amount of precautionary wealth from the 2002 wave of the Italian “Survey of Household Income and Wealth,” I assess the main determinants of the precautionary motive for saving, focusing on the role played by financial risk on households' saving decisions. Households that invest mainly in safe assets do not need to protect themselves against future and unexpected financial losses. Consequently, once we control for households' sources of risk beside financial ones, the amount of precautionary savings of a household investing exclusively in safe assets should be lower compared to households who detain a non‐negligible share of risky assets in their portfolio. Results show that, as expected, a strong and negative correlation exists between the desired amount of precautionary wealth and the ownership of a portfolio made exclusively of safe assets.     

TRAFFIC LIGHTS: WEAPONS OF MASS DISTRACTION,DANGER AND DELAY

Since my 2006 article in Economic Affairs proposing traffic system reform, there has been a growing interest in the subject. Trials in deregulation have produced the results that students of the subject predicted – congestion‐free roads and sociable interaction between road‐users.